Scientists have discovered that 75 percent of the US – home to hundreds of millions of Americans – is at risk of damaging earthquakes.
The US Geological Survey (USGS) released the latest National Seismic Hazard Model that included 350 newly discovered fault lines since the previous model in 2018 – bringing the total to about 1,000 faults.
The updates increased chances of disastrous earthquakes in the central and northeastern ‘Atlantic Coastal corridor’ that is home to Washington DC, Philadelphia, New York and Boston.
Seismically active regions of California, Alaska and Hawaii also experienced a heightened risk – certain parts of The Golden State now have a 95 percent chance of damaging quakes in the next century.
USGS also forecasted there will be average economic losses of $14.7 billion per year from ground-shaking–related damage to buildings based on the updated model.
The new model has been transformed into a map, showing the chances of damaging earthquakes striking different parts of the US. California’s coast has a 95 percent chance, while New York City has an up to 25 percent chance in the next 100 years
Mark Petersen, USGS geophysicist and lead author of the study, said in a statement: ‘Earthquakes are difficult to forecast but we’ve made great strides with this new model.
‘The update includes more faults, better-characterized land surfaces, and computational advancements in modeling that provide the most detailed view ever of the earthquake risks we face.’
The research was conducted by more than 50 reviewers, and hundreds of hazard scientists and end-users, who attended public workshops and provided technical inputs.
‘This was a massive, multi-year collaborative effort between federal, state and local governments and the private sector, said Petersen.
‘The new seismic hazard model represents a touchstone achievement for enhancing public safety.’
The US Geological Survey (USGS) released the latest National Seismic Hazard Model that included 350 newly discovered fault lines since the previous model in 2018 (pictured)
Pictured is the 2023 model, showing more areas in the US at risk
A massive 6.4 earthquake rocked northern California in 2022, leaving tens of thousands of people without power. The updated model shows that the state has a 95 percent chance of damaging earthquakes in the next 100 years
To construct the updated hazard assessment, the team used declustering algorithms that can analyze specific details of earthquakes like time and distance window of the mainshock.
Gridded seismicity models were part of the research, which accounts for ground shaking from earthquakes on known faults as well as earthquakes on un-modeled faults.
The team also incorporated fault-based structural and deformation models, multi-fault earthquake rupture forecast models, semi-empirical and simulation-based ground-motion models and site amplification models.
The model showed that 25 states have moderate to higher probabilities of shaking within the next 100 years.
The model showed that 25 states have moderate to higher probabilities of shaking within the next 100 years
The locations include California, Washington, Oregon, Utah, Wyoming, Nevada, Tennessee, Arkansans, Indiana, Missouri, South Carolina, Alaska and Hawaii.
‘Colorado, Wyoming, and Montana increased substantially due to changes in the methodology, the team shared in the study published in the journal Earthquake Spectra.
New York, Illinois and Texas were also found to be in the danger zone.
‘Our forensic analysis comparing the current and previous National Seismic Hazard Models shows substantial [60 percent] increases in hazard ratios in lower seismic areas such as New York City due to treatment in prioritizing the input earthquake catalogs,’ reads the study.
The team also found that 37 states have experienced earthquakes exceeding magnitude 5 during the last 200 years, highlighting a long history of seismic activity across this country.
