Can the Aussie continue to recover from the RBA’s surprisingly dovish policies last week?
Australia won’t be printing top-tier data this week, which means that AUD’s intraweek trends will likely depend on countercurrency moves and overall market sentiment.
Here are potential catalysts that may affect the comdoll’s prices this week:
Lower-tier economic releases
- NAB business confidence (Feb 9, 12:30 am GMT) to improve from 4 to 5 in January
- Westpac consumer confidence (Feb 9, 11:30 pm GMT) expected to turn positive in February
- Building permits (Feb 10, 12:30 am GMT) could be revised higher from 2.6% to 10.9%
- MI inflation expectations (Feb 11, 12:00 am GMT) seen remaining at 3.4% in January
Overall AUD demand
- As China is one of Australia’s largest trading partners, AUD’s intraday prices will likely be affected by China’s inflation (Feb 10, 1:30 am GMT) release
- Chinese New Year celebrations can limit AUD’s volatility near the end of the week
- The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) extending its bond-buying program and sharing that rates will likely remain low through 2024 will lessen AUD’s appeal against its fellow high-yielding bets
- If last week’s prices are any indication, AUD traders will price in significant iron ore (a major Australian export) price changes
Technical snapshot
- Stochastic considers the Aussie “oversold” against the pound
- AUD/JPY and AUD/CHF are “overbought” on the daily time frame
- AUD may soon hit “oversold” conditions against NZD
- Simple moving averages reflect the short-term demand for the Aussie
- AUD remains in short and long-term bullish trends against JPY, CHF, and EUR
- Like the Kiwi, the Aussie was most volatile against the safe-havens and the pound in the last seven days
Missed last week’s price action? Read AUD’s price recap for Feb. 1 – 5!
