AUD Weekly Forecast – December’s Jobs Numbers Due

Aussie traders are in for a busy week as Australia prints top-tier and closely watched data while China releases a data dump.

Which potential catalysts should you focus on?

Let me help you out:

Labor market data (Jan 21, 12:30 am GMT)

An improvement in Victoria’s labor market saw the country’s jobs increase by a net of 90,000 against expectations of a 50,000 uptick
Jobless rate inched lower from 7.0% to 6.8% while the labor force participation rate climbed from 65.8% to 66.1%
There were no other catalysts at the time so Aussie traders priced in (as in bought AUD) at the upside surprises
Markets see another 40,000 net job additions in January
Unemployment rate could inch back up to 7.0% while participation rate is seen improving to 66.2%

MI inflation expectations (Jan 21, 12:00 am GMT) to inch lower from 3.5% to 3.4%
Markit’s manufacturing PMI (Jan 21, 10:00 pm GMT) could dip from 55.7 to 55.1
Markit’s services PMI seen weakening from 57.0 to 56.5
Retail sales (Jan 22, 12:30 am GMT) could drop by 3.0% after a 7.0% jump in October

Policy decisions from the Bank of Canada (BOC), Bank of Japan (BOJ), and the European Central Bank (ECB) will give clues on global monetary stimulus trends
Manufacturing PMIs from the U.S., U.K., Eurozone, and Japan will paint a picture of the recovery of global manufacturing
COVID-19 updates (number of cases, vaccine schedule, lockdown prospects) will continue to affect the demand for high-yielding currencies like the Aussie
Australia’s trade conflict with China can influence iron ore prices – one of Australia’s major exports – and affect AUD’s intraweek trends

AUD is hitting “overbought” levels on the daily Keltner Channels
AUD may soon hit overbought conditions against EUR, CHF, and CAD on the daily time frame

EMAs show the low-key bearish pressure AUD is receiving against most of its major counterparts
The Aussie remains on short and long-term bullish trends against the euro and Kiwi