AUD Weekly Forecast – Labor Market Numbers on Tap

Aussie traders are in for a busy week as Australia prints its labor market reports, RBA’s Lowe takes center stage, and China releases a bunch of top-tier reports.

How can you trade these potential catalysts?

Here are some points you need to know about the events:

Labor market data ((Oct 16, 12:30 am GMT)

The unemployment rate unexpectedly fell from 7.5% to 6.8% – the lowest since April – as restrictions were lifted in most states
A net of 111,000 jobs was created (markets saw a 50K decline) and reflected a rise in both full-time (36,200) and part-time (74,800) hiring
AUD still fell during the Asian session as traders were busy pricing in the Fed not being aggressive with its stimulus as they had expected
Analysts see the unemployment rate climbing to 7.0%
Overall employment could see a net decline of 40,000 in September

China’s top-tier reports

China is one of Australia’s biggest trading partners, so anything that can affect China’s growth can usually move AUD’s trends
Trade data (Oct 13, Asian session) could show a wider surplus (from 58.9B to 60B) even as annual numbers show imports recovering faster than exports
Consumer prices (Oct 15, 1:30 am GMT) could slow down from 2.4% to 2.0% from a year ago in September
Producer prices (Oct 15, 1:30 am GMT) seen at -1.8% after a -2.0% print in August

Market risk appetite

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Lowe will speak in an annual conference on Oct 14, 9:45 pm GMT where he is expected to share the central bank’s willingness to keep rate cut prospects on the table
Stimulus headlines in the U.S. will continue to affect overall risk sentiment and the demand for high-yielding currencies like AUD
Updates on the Brexit negotiations, eurozone’s second wave restrictions, and earnings reports in the U.S. can also influence AUD’s intraday trends