WASHINGTON—The U.S. Chamber of Commerce is warning that rising tensions with China could have serious consequences for U.S. businesses, laying out a worse-case scenario where some major U.S. industries would be crippled.
Full decoupling—meaning a complete cutoff of sales to China—would cost the U.S. aircraft and aviation industry between $38 billion and $51 billion in sales annually, the report estimates. That would translate to between 167,000 and 225,000 jobs lost.
Similarly, an end to U.S. semiconductor sales to China would cost the industry $83 billion in revenue and 124,000 jobs, according to the report entitled “Understanding U.S.-China Decoupling.”
The scenarios laid out in the 88-page report envision a complete end to sales between the two intertwined economic superpowers—the kind of outcome that is only likely to happen in an all-out war.
Still, the Chamber argues, it is important to contemplate extreme cases as a way to focus policy makers on the costs involved in battling China.
