The euro remains resilient despite the ECB sharing its concern for a strong euro and consideration for further stimulus.
Will this week’s releases cause retracements for the euro?
I’ve got a shortlist of the potential catalysts you need to watch out for:
Lower-tier economic releases
- Eurozone ZEW economic sentiment (Oct 13, 9:00 am GMT) printed at 73.9 in September
- German ZEW economic sentiment (Oct 13, 9:00 am GMT) to dip from 77.4 to 70.0 in October
- Industrial production (Oct 14, 9:00 am GMT) seen falling from 4.1% to -2.0% in August
- Final headline CPI (Oct 16, 9:00 am GMT) to be revised from -0.4% to 0.1%?
- Core inflation (Oct 16, 9:00 am GMT) to slow down from 0.4% to 0.2%
- Eurozone trade surplus (Oct 16, 9:00 am GMT) expected to narrow down from 27.9B EUR to 15.1B EUR in August
- (Virtual) IMF meetings to start on Friday
Overall EUR and CHF demand
- EUR has been retaining its gains despite hints of currency intervention and more easing from the European Central Bank (ECB)
- Significant downside surprises from the region’s economic releases could cause retracements for EUR’s major pairs
- The EU Summit starts on Thursday. Watch out for headlines over Brexit, as well as possible sanctions on Russia, and Turkey
- No major catalysts from Switzerland this week, which means CHF will likely serve as safe haven for EUR and USD for most of the week
Technical snapshot
- The euro gained the most against USD, JPY, and NZD in the last seven days
- EUR has lost value against GBP, CHF, AUD, and CAD in the same time period
- Stochastic is flagging EUR/USD and EUR/JPY’s “overbought” conditions
- EUR/CAD may be “oversold” on the daily time frame
- CHF has lost value against AUD and CAD in the last seven days
- The franc gained the most against its fellow safe havens
- EMAs show CHF’s short and long-term bullish trends against JPY, USD, and EUR
- GBP/CHF and CAD/CHF may soon see retracements or a reversal on the daily time frame
Missed last week’s price action? Read EUR & CHF’s price recap for October 5 – 9!
