Interest rate cut talks rained on the Kiwi’s parade last week.
Can the bulls find some momentum this week?
Here are the potential catalysts that can affect the comdoll in the next few days:
Business PMI report (Oct 15, 9:30 pm GMT)
Quarterly CPI (Oct 15, 10:45 pm GMT)
- Quarterly prices dropped by 0.5% in Q2 2020 and dragged annual prices down from a 2.5% growth to a 1.5% uptick
- The report weighed on NZD, which was pushed even lower by bearish headlines from the U.S.
- Analysts see Q3’s prices rising by 0.7% though annual prices could dip to a 1.4% growth
New Zealand’s general elections
- Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern’s Labour Party is holding a wide lead over the main opposition National Party
- Labour is expected to get 60 seats in parliament, one short of the 61 seats needed to form a government
- Its coalition partner Green Party, however, is expected to get around eight seats
- New Zealand heads to the polls on Oct 17
Overall risk sentiment
- Stimulus bets in the U.S. will continue to drive risk sentiment this week
- Top-tier releases from Australia (labor data) and China (CPI, PPI, trade balance) can affect Kiwi’s prices as both countries are two of New Zealand’s largest trading partners
- Election headlines in the U.S. can influence overall risk-taking in the markets
Technical snapshot
- Stochastic considers the Kiwi “oversold” against the pound, Aussie, and the Loonie
- NZD/USD and NZD/JPY look like they’re headed for the “overbought” territory
- EMAs reflect NZD/USD and NZD/JPY’s short and long-term bullish trends
- Kiwi is seeing short-term bullish pressure against the Aussie, franc, and the euro but at are still under the 50 and 200 EMAs on the daily time frame
- NZD saw the most volatility against USD, JPY, GBP, and EUR in the last seven days
Missed last week’s price action? Read NZD’s price recap for October 5 – 9!
