The decision by Elizabeth MacDonough, the chief Senate parliamentarian, will set the stage for an intense debate among Democrats about how to proceed on the contentious provision. Democrats, who cannot afford to lose a single vote among their own ranks to pass the bill in an evenly divided Senate, have split over the push to raise the federal minimum wage, which would boost it to $15 an hour over four years.

State minimum wage levels

The minimum-wage increase is the most divisive issue in the aid package, which Democrats broadly support. It would also provide a $1,400 payment to many Americans; extend and enhance federal unemployment assistance; send $350 billion in aid to state and local governments; and pour new funding into vaccine distribution, food stamps and schools.

“There is certainly hope on the horizon,” Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) said on the Senate floor Wednesday. “But we are a far way off from a full recovery and it is our job—our job—to help millions of struggling Americans through the next several months of difficulty, and hasten the day when our country can finally return to normal.”

Democratic and Republican staff made their arguments before the parliamentarian Wednesday morning on the minimum-wage provision and have been waiting since then to hear her recommendation.

Democrats are using a process called reconciliation to pass the aid package with a simple majority, rather than the 60 votes required for most legislation. But reconciliation also comes with Senate rules on what proposals can be approved under the special procedure, including that the provision be directly tied to the budget.

If Ms. MacDonough rules that the minimum-wage increase is eligible to be included in the package, Democrats will have to reach a consensus among themselves over how to structure it.

Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia has said he would try to amend the wage increase to $11 an hour.

Photo: Sarah Silbiger – Pool Via Cnp/Zuma Press

While many Democrats, including the party’s progressive wing, have embraced raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour, several senators have qualms about the plan. Some are concerned about the impact the increase could have on small businesses and restaurants, and Sen. Joe Manchin (D., W.Va.), the party’s most prominent moderate, has said he would try to amend the wage increase to $11 an hour. Other lawmakers have explored offering tax relief to small businesses or phasing in the wage increase more slowly for smaller firms.

“Putting $15 out there right now just makes it very difficult in rural America, we have small businesses,” Mr. Manchin said.

Mr. Biden has said he expects the parliamentarian to say that the minimum-wage increase can’t be part of the bill.

The Biden Stimulus Plan

If Democrats receive the green light from the parliamentarian, they will have a matter of weeks to reach a compromise among their ranks and still pass the bill before federal unemployment programs expire in mid-March. With control of the Senate split 50-50, Vice President Kamala Harris can break ties but Democrats can’t lose a single lawmaker.

If the parliamentarian indicates the minimum-wage provision doesn’t meet muster, Democrats face a different set of decisions. Some progressives have said they would push for the White House and lawmakers in the Senate to ignore her ruling. Several senators have said they would be uncomfortable with bending the chamber’s rules to raise the minimum wage, as did White House chief of staff Ron Klain on Wednesday night.

Ignoring the parliamentarian is “not something we’ll do,” Mr. Klain said on MSNBC. “We will work within the rules of the Senate and get the bill passed.”

Republicans have argued that the package provides aid that isn’t necessary and unrelated to the pandemic.

“Unfortunately, the Democrats’ partisan proposal would not just be wasteful, but in certain areas, actively counterproductive,” Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.) said.

Concerns from Democrats over the minimum-wage provision included in President Biden’s $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief package could force changes. WSJ’s Gerald F. Seib explains. Photo illustration: Laura Kammermann

Senate Republicans criticized Democrats in a press conference Wednesday over their proposal to raise the minimum wage to $15 an hour, but they face divisions among themselves on the issue.

Sen. Josh Hawley (R., Mo.) said Wednesday he planned to introduce legislation that would award a quarterly tax credit to workers who earn below the median wage of $16.50 an hour, which would be indexed to inflation. The credit would be worth 50% of the difference between the worker’s hourly rate and the median wage for up to 40 hours of work a week.

Healthcare subsidies and support for multiemployer pensions are among the other issues the parliamentarian could also soon rule on. The bill subsidizes 85% of the cost of premiums for healthcare insurance coverage through Cobra, which most employers are required to offer to employees they recently laid off, and offers relief to struggling multiemployer pensions.

Beyond removing measures that face procedural challenges, Democrats are also looking at changing the bill by adding new tax measures to raise revenue and keep its overall price at $1.9 trillion, according to an aide.

The debate on raising the minimum wage has returned Ms. MacDonough to the spotlight. A former Senate library worker and trial attorney, she has worked in the parliamentarian’s office since 1999. As both parties rely on the reconciliation process to pass legislation with a simple majority, the parliamentarian’s rulings have played a major role in key legislative efforts, including Republican efforts to repeal the Affordable Care Act.

Write to Kristina Peterson at [email protected] and Andrew Duehren at [email protected]

Copyright ©2020 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

This post first appeared on wsj.com

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