While election uncertainty bubbles in the background, dollar traders will price in any and all coronavirus-related updates that might affect Uncle Sam’s growth trends.
Planning on trading the Greenback this week?
Not before you take note of the potential market-movers that might affect its intraweek trends!
Closely watched data releases
- Retail sales (Nov 17, 1:30 pm GMT) to slow down from 1.9% to 0.4% in October
- Core retail sales to drop from 1.5% to 0.5%
- Industrial production (Nov 17, 2:15 pm GMT) seen printing at 0.8% (from -0.6%)
- Building permits (Nov 18, 1:30 pm GMT) could come in at 1.57M (from 1.55M)
- Housing starts (Nov 18, 1:30 pm GMT) to grow by 2.1% (from 1.9%)
- Initial jobless claims (Nov 19, 1:30 pm GMT) to ease from 709K to 685K?
- Philly Fed manufacturing index (Nov 19, 1:30 pm GMT) to drop from 32.3 to 25.0 in November
- Existing home sales (Nov 19, 3:00 pm GMT) to dip from 6.54M to 6.45M
FOMC members’ speeches
- Richard Clarida (Nov 16, 7:00 pm GMT) will host an online discussion
- John Williams (Nov 18, 5:15 pm GMT) will speak at a webinar
- Robert Kaplan (Nov 20, 1:30 pm GMT) will talk energy and economy
Overall dollar demand
- The Trump admin’s dismissal of lockdowns has cushioned economic growth concerns amidst record-breaking daily coronavirus cases and rising pandemic-related hospitalizations and deaths in the U.S.
- Decreasing odds of a stimulus program has worked in the dollar’s favor last week as traders take bets off from their riskier assets
- Continued election uncertainty can limit the dollar’s gains
- If last week was any indication, more vaccine progress will lead to risk-taking and a weaker dollar
Technical snapshot
- Stochastic considers the dollar “oversold” against the Kiwi
- It may also soon hit oversold status against the Aussie
- USD/CHF is approaching the “overbought” region
- EMAs reflect the dollar’s short and long-term bearish trends against most of its major counterparts
- USD/CAD is seeing short-term demand on the daily time frame
- The dollar was most volatile against Kiwi, the pound, Aussie, and the yen in the last seven days
Missed last week’s price action? Read USD’s price recap for Nov. 9 – 13!
